"It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Three months ago, at Birth of a Blog, I promised to revisit my fearless forecasts once every three months.
Then: The United States is in the beginning stages of a recession. Yes, that means that real estate prices are going to continue to go down. In most of the United States, the best time to buy real estate is not now. Ouch.
Now: I’m a genius, with a firm grasp of the obvious.
Future: More of the same. Real estate moves in long cycles, and this one isn’t long yet.
Then: As the recession gets more obvious, the Fed is going to keep cutting interest rates.
Now: Genius again, not so obvious three months ago.
Future: More of the same.
Then: Oil, in dollars, is going to keep going up. ($80 per barrel).
Now: $90 per barrel, down from its highs. Good call.
Future: Probably in a range, fear of recession will bring the price down, political risks keep it up. No clear trend short term.
Then: The dollar is going to keep going down.
Now: The Loonie is now $0.99, vs $1.02 in October. After being right for a month, I was wrong.
No clear trend. The dollar did keep going down against the Euro. Up a little against the Pound.
Future: Probably more or less stable. The big move happened last year.
Then: Buy Costa Rica real estate.
Now: In October, the lowest priced two bedroom, two bath condominium unit available at The Oaks was $142,500. Now $159,000, up over 11%.
Future: Prices will rise again by March, and again in April or May when phases one and two are sold out. Probably by another 11% or more, which is still below appraised value. Appraised values are rising because of demand (more flights, new hotels) and price inflation in construction materials, plus a weaker dollar against the Costa Rican colon.
See you in three months.
Three months ago, at Birth of a Blog, I promised to revisit my fearless forecasts once every three months.
Then: The United States is in the beginning stages of a recession. Yes, that means that real estate prices are going to continue to go down. In most of the United States, the best time to buy real estate is not now. Ouch.
Now: I’m a genius, with a firm grasp of the obvious.
Future: More of the same. Real estate moves in long cycles, and this one isn’t long yet.
Then: As the recession gets more obvious, the Fed is going to keep cutting interest rates.
Now: Genius again, not so obvious three months ago.
Future: More of the same.
Then: Oil, in dollars, is going to keep going up. ($80 per barrel).
Now: $90 per barrel, down from its highs. Good call.
Future: Probably in a range, fear of recession will bring the price down, political risks keep it up. No clear trend short term.
Then: The dollar is going to keep going down.
Now: The Loonie is now $0.99, vs $1.02 in October. After being right for a month, I was wrong.
No clear trend. The dollar did keep going down against the Euro. Up a little against the Pound.
Future: Probably more or less stable. The big move happened last year.
Then: Buy Costa Rica real estate.
Now: In October, the lowest priced two bedroom, two bath condominium unit available at The Oaks was $142,500. Now $159,000, up over 11%.
Future: Prices will rise again by March, and again in April or May when phases one and two are sold out. Probably by another 11% or more, which is still below appraised value. Appraised values are rising because of demand (more flights, new hotels) and price inflation in construction materials, plus a weaker dollar against the Costa Rican colon.
See you in three months.
