Birth of a Blog

I don’t want to admit how long I’ve been putting this off. Mothers, you should be proud of yourselves.
These thoughts are for you, readers of our web site, www.greensealrealty.com. They focus on my experiences living in Costa Rica for the last three years, selling Costa Rica real estate, and developing an environmentally friendly condominium project (no smart comments, that is not a long oxymoron) in the heart of Guanacaste’s Gold Coast. Come to think of it, compared to doing that, this blog thing is easy!
My, my, my. Really! Ours, ours, ours, is more like it, because without some of you none of this is possible. Plus, I’ve met a lot of great friends, and interesting people, here in Costa Rica! If you are reading and you don’t know which group you’re in, it’s probably both!
Let’s start off with something controversial. My daddy used to say, if you want to find out where a man stands, first find out where he sits. So you’re forewarned. The big picture should contain plenty to disagree about.
Here is my fearless forecast.
The United States is in the beginning stage of a recession. Yes, that means real estate prices are going to continue to go down. In most of the United States, the best time to buy real estate is not now. Ouch.
As the recession gets more obvious, the Fed is going to keep cutting interest rates. Oil, in dollars, is going to keep going up. The dollar is going to keep going down. Mad yet? It gets better.
Taxes are going up, because the “temporary” tax cuts set to expire in 2010 are going to do just that, expire. So we will have a continuing recession (tax hikes), falling interest rates, falling dollar, rising oil. Yuck.
Until the recession reduces the demand for oil enough and sends the price down again. The price of oil truly is cyclical, although in a long term up trend. And don’t tell me about the Chinese demand for oil. They sell their stuff to the U.S., so as the U.S. gets recession, so do the Chinese. There.
So the real estate investor is in a conundrum (or worse). Don’t buy in a falling market. The trend is your friend. Don’t time a turnaround. Don’t catch a falling knife. (If you care about your vocabulary, don’t hang around Wall Street types).
How do you profit from a falling dollar, avoid falling U.S. real estate prices, and profit from rising hard asset prices? Like buy foreign real estate, you ask? You knew it was coming. It’s where I sit. But fact is, it’s true.
Take a deep breath, step back, and ask yourself this: aside from putting my money in bonds, which doesn’t work because the dollar value of those bonds goes down, how do I make money in this mess? How do I profit?
One answer? Buy Costa Rica real estate. The price in dollars is going up, because the demand is soaring in Loonies, Pounds and Euros (and also just because the price in dollars is going up). I know, because I’m selling to these folks. The trends line up in Costa Rica; the trends are your friends.
Good reasons for all of this, based on supply and demand, infrastructure investment finally happening, a great climate, great location, low cost of living, close to the U.S. and Canada, a screaming bargain for anyone not paying dollars! Plus a stable, friendly government, no army, universal health care, and a genuine liking for North Americans and Europeans. Blah blah blah.
But we’re going to stop here, now, because it’s time for me to go out. I’m in Costa Rica. This is about having fun and profit. Talk with you later.